At the end of the 10th week, the MABUX Global bunker indices showed a steady downward trend. The 380 HSFO index declined by 12.33 USD, dropping from 513.25 USD/MT last week to 500.92 USD/MT, reaching the 500 USD mark.
The VLSFO index fell by 16.57 USD, from 602.42 USD/MT to 585.85 USD/MT, staying below the 600 USD threshold. The MGO index decreased by 17.28 USD, from 791.52 USD/MT last week to 774.24 USD/MT. At the time of writing, the moderate decline in the global bunker market was ongoing.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – continued its downward trend, decreasing by $4.24 (from $89.17 last week to $84.93), remaining firmly below the $100.00 breakeven mark. The weekly average of the index also declined by $5.72.
In Rotterdam, the SS Spread dropped by $14.00, from $77.00 last week to $63.00, with the weekly average in the port losing $1.34. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference also continued to narrow, decreasing by $8.00 from $53.00 last week to $45.00.
On March 3, it even briefly dipped below the $40.00 mark. The weekly average in the port declined by $17.00. Thus, the Global SS Spread maintains its steady downward trend, gradually reducing the profitability of the VLSFO+Scrubber combination in favor of conventional VLSFO fuel. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
The premium on natural gas for European deliveries this summer over futures prices for next winter has eased in recent days due to milder temperatures and ongoing talks to end the conflict in Ukraine.
Typically, winter gas prices exceed summer prices. However, since early 2025, cooler temperatures and rapidly depleting European gas supplies have pushed summer futures higher, as Europe now faces the need to buy significantly more gas to replenish storage.
Despite this, the current premium makes summer stockpiling uneconomical. Utilities and market operators in key European economies, including Germany, have urged governments to provide support for rebuilding natural gas reserves ahead of the 2025/2026 winter.
As of March 04, European regional storage facilities were 37.63% full, marking a decrease of 2.67% compared to the previous week and a significant drop of 33.70% since the beginning of the year. The gas withdrawal process remains in an active phase.
At the end of the 10th week, the European gas benchmark TTF halted its decline, decreasing by 0.827 euro/MWh but remaining firmly below the 50.00 euro/MWh mark, standing at 43.464 euro/MWh compared to 44.291 euro/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) fell by another $80 compared to the previous week, reaching $869/MT on March 03. Meanwhile, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel also narrowed on March 03, standing at $124 in favor of MGO LS, down from $177 a week earlier.
On that day, MGO LS was quoted at $745/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
At the end of the 10th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) – which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP) – showed mixed movements across the four major global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
With one additional port shifting into the overvalued zones for both 380 HSFO and MGO LS, the trend of a gradual shift in MDI towards overvaluation continues and may persist into the following week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section of mabux.com.
A new analysis by UMAS, UCL, and the Global Maritime Forum (GMF) finds that a global GHG levy and stricter fuel standards alone will not be enough to close the price gap between conventional fuels and e-fuels. To make green shipping corridors commercially viable in the short term, direct financial support will be necessary.
The study indicates that even when the IMO Global Fuel Standard is combined with the EU ETS and US IRA, the cost of using e-fuels will remain higher than alternatives like biofuels, LNG, blue ammonia, and biomethanol. Analytical modeling suggests that this cost gap will persist until the 2040s, when the IMO Fuel Standard is expected to become stringent enough to mandate e-fuel adoption.
Although the exact trajectory of future fuel standards remains uncertain, LNG could become non-conventional as early as the 2030s, while biofuels are projected to become more expensive than e-fuels by the 2040s due to limited supply and competing demand from other sectors, including aviation.
The authors advocate for targeted short-term support to accelerate e-fuel adoption, as these fuels are expected to become more competitive over time due to falling production costs and increasing regulatory requirements. More than 60 green shipping corridor projects have already been announced worldwide.
We anticipate that the moderate downtrend in the global bunker market will continue into next week.
Source: MABUX
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