Golden Week capacity surge raises October schedule risks

The unusually compressed 2026 holiday calendar is creating significant disruption in Golden Week shipping capacity, particularly on the Asia–North Europe trade, as congestion and vessel scheduling issues combine to distort normal capacity patterns.

According to Sea-Intelligence’s latest Sunday Spotlight analysis, the Mid-Autumn Festival from 25–27 September falls immediately ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday on 1–7 October. At the same time, congestion at Asian ports and vessels returning to the Suez Canal route on back-haul voyages are contributing to an unusually volatile operating environment.

Across the four-week Golden Week period, scheduled Asia–North Europe capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.50 million TEU. That represents a 27% increase year on year and around 60% more than the pre-pandemic average.

The largest increases are concentrated around Golden Week itself. Capacity during Golden Week is scheduled to rise 63% year on year, followed by a 39% increase in the subsequent week. Sea-Intelligence notes that this does not reflect a deliberate capacity strategy from carriers. Instead, severe congestion has delayed vessels and created a “bunching” effect, with delayed departures overlapping regular sailings. This results in 12 double-sailings across the two-week period.

However, the temporary capacity surge could quickly reverse once delayed vessels clear the backlog. Golden Week factory closures are expected to reduce export cargo, while faster Suez Canal routing will release additional vessel capacity.

Sea-Intelligence therefore expects significant oversupply pressure and the possibility of last-minute voyage cancellations. Shippers are advised to view mid-to-late October schedules as highly uncertain, with potential for rolled cargo, abrupt delays and wider schedule instability.

Source: Sea-Intelligence, Sunday Spotlight – Golden Week Capacity Distortions, 23 September 2026.