Container charter market faces its first real correction in years

Drewry warns of growing dislocation between freight rates and charter markets, suggesting the current surge in chartering is unsustainable. Shipping lines and asset owners should brace for a cooling phase ahead.

The container shipping market is currently experiencing a striking tension: while freight rates remain elevated, charter markets are showing signs of overheating. According to Drewry, this disconnect may not last.

Over the past five years, charter rates have surged as vessel demand soared and shipping lines faced capacity constraints. But Drewry argues that structural pressures — including overordering, vessel idling risk, and financing constraints — now point toward a correction phase.

From the shipping industry’s perspective, the correction could have several implications:

• Lease and charter costs normalize, easing upward pressure on liner operating costs.
• Asset owners’ returns may be squeezed, especially for newer tonnage that commanded premium charter levels.
• Increased scrapping or idling risk if earnings fall faster than expectations.
• Greater negotiating leverage for shippers, particularly in the contract / time-charter market, as risk shifts.
• Pressure on secondary markets / resale values, which built in optimism on sustained high charter levels.

Drewry forecasts that the correction won’t necessarily be abrupt — it may unfold over 2026 as the charter markets recalibrate to a more sustainable balance.

For shipping stakeholders, the core takeaway is: the charter boom may not last as long as many expect. The time to hedge downside risk, revisit long-term charter commitments, and stress-test fleet economics is now.

Source: Drewry, Container Insight Weekly (14 October 2025)