Alphaliner’s mid-August survey showed a very slight increase of 28,000 TEU in the ‘commercially idle’ container ship fleet over the past fortnight. Despite some erosion in spot freight rates since June, as reflected by the SCFI, FBX, and KOBC indices, idling remains exceptionally low at just 0.5% of the global 32.5 MTEU liner fleet.
With such minimal idling, the sector is considered ‘fully employed,’ with no evidence of ‘structural idling.’ The few observed cases are purely operational, such as vessels waiting between assignments or re-entering service after drydock.
The slight increase is further muted by the fact that a significant portion of newly idled capacity results from geopolitical factors rather than commercial decisions. This includes approximately 20,000 TEU of vessels recently blacklisted by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
Following a period of front-loading ahead of the now-extended pause in implementing U.S.-China tariffs, the market is expected to face muted cargo demand—particularly in the Transpacific trade—despite it being the traditional peak season.
While the low idle fleet figures can be attributed to several ongoing global disruptions that are effectively absorbing millions of TEU slots, there will come a point when these disruptions are no longer sufficient to absorb excess tonnage.
Source: Alphaliner
