Global bunker fuel prices show mixed signals | Week 45

Bunker fuel prices showed mixed movements in Week 45, with HSFO and VLSFO easing slightly while MGO LS firmed. Overall, the market remains directionless as regional trends continue to diverge.

The 380 HSFO index slipped USD 5.51 to USD 439.82/MT, falling below USD 450 again. The VLSFO index edged USD 1.84 lower to USD 509.43/MT, while the MGO LS index rose USD 5.81 to USD 790.68/MT, nearing the USD 800 mark. Overall, fuel prices showed no unified trend across the main hubs.

The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price gap between HSFO and VLSFO — widened moderately by USD 3.67 to USD 69.61. Rotterdam’s spread increased USD 3 to USD 27 and Singapore’s jumped USD 13 to USD 75, though all remain well below the USD 100 breakeven level. Analysts expect the mild upward momentum to persist short-term, sustaining the profitability of VLSFO versus HSFO + scrubber setups.

In Europe’s gas and LNG markets, balance remains tight ahead of winter. Storage stood 83.0 % full as of 4 November — only 0.17 pp higher week-on-week — while the TTF benchmark gained € 1.06 to € 32.55 /MWh. LNG continues to provide flexibility, but infrastructure limits keep price risk elevated.

At the port of Sines (Portugal), LNG bunker prices dropped USD 13 to USD 732/MT, widening the advantage over MGO LS (USD 780/MT). The USD 48 differential highlights LNG’s sustained cost competitiveness in the marine segment.

Across the major hubs, MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) readings signalled continued undervaluation in most fuel grades. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah remained discounted in the HSFO segment, while Houston shifted from over- to undervalued on VLSFO. Singapore stayed the only overvalued port on MGO LS.

MABUX expects global bunker indices to continue fluctuating within a narrow range as market fundamentals remain uneven.

Source: MABUX