Global bunker prices extend gains as MGO leads upside | Week 5

Global bunker prices continued to firm in Week 5, with all major MABUX indices moving higher. The 380 HSFO index rose to around $424/MT, while VLSFO climbed back above the $500/MT mark.

MGO LS recorded the strongest increase, rising to just under $777/MT, reinforcing the overall upward bias in the bunker market.

The global scrubber spread (HSFO–VLSFO) narrowed slightly and remained below $80/MT, well under the $100/MT breakeven threshold. Port-level spreads also contracted in both Rotterdam and Singapore, confirming that conventional VLSFO remains more cost-effective than HSFO combined with scrubber operation, at least for now.

MABUX considers the current narrowing to be temporary, with scope for recovery in the short term.

In ECAs, spreads between ULSFO and MGO LS continued to ease in both Istanbul and Venice, consolidating in the $65–75/MT range. Rising ULSFO prices, driven by tighter regional supply, contrasted with relatively stable MGO pricing supported by balanced fundamentals.

As supply conditions normalise, ECA spreads are expected to stabilise closer to the $100/MT level.
LNG and gas market dynamics were mixed.

European gas storage levels fell sharply amid colder weather, while the TTF benchmark rose to nearly €39/MWh by the end of the week. At the port of Sines, LNG bunker prices surged to almost $980/MT, widening the price gap versus MGO LS significantly in favour of conventional fuel.

Across major hubs, the MABUX Market Differential Index continued to signal undervaluation across all bunker fuel grades. By the end of the week, undervaluation once again became the dominant trend, which MABUX expects to persist into the coming week.

Source: MABUX