Although the activity has been so far limited since key decision makers are only slowly coming back to their desk, Alphaliner understands that the underlying demand in the container charter market is still strong in the run-up to the Chinese New Year, with vessels under negotiations or freshly fixed, securing continuously robust terms.
The market remains short on tonnage above 3,000 teu with the biggest ships of 5,500 teu and above in particular being in especially limited number until the summer.
This low availability of vessels has the potential to create further rises in charter rates, assuming demand maintains its current momentum.
Below 3,000 teu, there is greater tonnage liquidity but even there, Alphaliner sees fewer ships coming open in 2025 than in 2024, which should contribute to keeping charter rates healthy in these sizes too.
How the year 2025 will ultimately unfold for the charter market will however very much depend on geopolitics, with the key question being to know when the Red Sea crisis will end, and the Suez route be widely used again.
An early reopening of the Suez route could derail the current bonanza for ship owners and carriers, with a likely return of overcapacity hitting particularly the largest ships.
The threat is all the more plausible as another 2 Mteu of newbuilding capacity is expected to be delivered in 2025.
Whilst continued diversions via the Cape of Good Hope will significantly help to absorb these new ships, a reversal to the Suez route could make these capacities more challenging to assimilate.
Source: Alphaliner
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