Temporary tariff pause mitigates global trade contraction, but strong downside risks persist

The outlook for global trade has deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Based on measures in place as of 14 April, including the suspension of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States, the volume of world merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 before posting a modest recovery of 2.5% […]