MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2022

The progress in Russia-Ukrainian talks eased concerns of a possible shortage on the bunker market and pushed the prices down on a Week 11. The 380 HSFO Index fell by 75.93 USD: from 761.79 USD/MT to 685.86 USD/MT. The VLSFO Index declined by 136.70 USD: from 1032.68 USD/MT to 895.98 USD/MT. The MGO index showed the most significant decrease: by 159.01 USD (from 1270.94 USD/MT to 1111.93 USD/MT). Bunker indices continue demonstrating high volatility.

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The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) weekly average – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – didn’t show significant changes over the week: plus $0.09 ($238.00 vs. $237.91 last week). On March 16 Global SS Spread declined from $270.89 to $210.12 (down by $60.77). In Rotterdam, the SS Spread weekly average rose from $222.17 to $267.67 (up $45.50 from last week). On March 16, SS Spread in Rotterdam showed $ 260.00 (down $29 from last week). In Singapore, the average SS Spread declined: minus $17.66 from $278.84 to $261.17. More information is available in the Price Differences section of mabux.com.

Over the Week 11, the average correlation of MABUX MBP Index (market bunker prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX digital bunker benchmark) showed that 380 HSFO fuel was overpriced at three out of four selected ports: in Rotterdam – plus $50, in Singapore – plus $58 and in Houston – plus $95. In Fujairah, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered 380 HSFO’s underpricing by minus $1. The most significant changes were registered in Singapore where the undercharge level increased by 81 points and this fuel grade became overcharged.

VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, remains overpriced in all selected ports: plus $144 in Rotterdam, plus $93 in Singapore, plus $117 in Fujairah and plus $100 in Houston. The most weekly significant was the rise of VLSFO’s overcharge margin at the port of Rotterdam (by 94 points) and Houston (by 93 points).

As for MGO LS, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index recorded an overpricing of this fuel grade in three of the four selected ports: in Rotterdam – by plus $29, in Fujairah – by plus $40 and in Houston – by plus $189. The only underpriced port, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, was Singapore – minus $ 30. The most significant change was a sharp increase of the underprice ratio in Fujairah (by 154 points) and the increase of overcharge level in Houston (by 165 points).

Bunker fuel sales in Singapore slipped 13.2% on the month, or 15% lower on the year, to 3.502 million mt in February, according to preliminary data by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore March 13. Sales of all bunker grades in February marked double-digit declines from the previous month, the MPA data also showed, amid relatively subdued demand. Sales of the International Maritime Organization-compliant grades, which include 100 CST, 180 CST, 380 CST and 500 CST bunker fuel, slipped 10.7% on the month to 2.287 million mt in February, lowest monthly sales since the IMO2020 mandate was instated.

The tensions between Russia and Ukraine continues to be the main driver in the global bunker market. We expect bunker prices may rise next week.

Source: www.mabux.com