Bunker Weekly Outlook

Global oil indexes rallied on Nov.03-Nov.04 on U.S. Election Day as equity markets around the world and in the U.S. also rose, with traders bracing for the outcome of the election. A number of uncertainties, however, put downward pressure on oil and fuel prices these days as well, including when an effective vaccine could be available and when economies recover.

The World Bunker Index MABUX demonstrated slight upward evolution for a week. The 380 HSFO index rose from 290.85 to 296.10 USD/ MT (+5.25 USD), VLSFO added 9.00 USD globally: from 335 to 344 USD / MT, while MGO gained only 2.81 USD: from 402.46 up to 405.27 USD / MT. There are no any significant changes in the Global Scrubber Spread (SS) (price difference between 380 HSFOs and VLSFOs) as well: it has narrowed by 1.72 USD and averaged USD 45.33 (47.05 USD a week ago).

MABUX presents new Bunker Price Benchmark – DIGITAL BUNKER PRICE (DBP) – which relates entirely to Oil Future differentials. Among other features DBP is a tool to identify overcharge/undercharge bunker prices and shows real-time bunker price trends updating every 1 minute. The function is available in 35 world major ports (more details at www.mabux.com).

In Rotterdam the average value of the VLSFO DBP Index for the past 30 days is 6 USD below the market price (302 USD/MT – average Market Price, 296 USD/MT – DBP Index), which means that the market price of VLSFO bunker fuel has been slightly overestimated. As for 380 HSFO, the latest trend also shows it was overcharged by an average of 5 USD (251 USD/MT – av. Market Price, 246 USD/MT – DBP). On the contrary, MGO prices were undercharged by average 19 USD (324 USD/MT – av. Market Price against 343 USD/MT – DBP).

The European Parliament discussed on Oct.28 a draft report which called “to prohibit scrubbers and discharges into the sea of waste water and other waste residues and to ensure that they are properly collected and processed in port reception facilities. The report also highlights the urgent need for an emissions control area to be set up in the Mediterranean. The report would not be expected to be voted on until next year.