Bunker Prices Weekly Outlook – Week 22

During Week 22, MABUX World Bunker Index continued its upward trend. 380 HSFO index increased by 17.22 USD: from 423.98 USD/MT to 441.20 USD/MT, VLSFO index rose by 22.80 USD: from 522.63 USD/MT to 545.43 USD/MT, while MGO index added 14.96 USD (from 617.27 USD/MT to 632.23 USD/MT).

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index – the average price of LNG as a marine fuel in the ARA region, has fallen by 2.11 USD during the week from 600.69 USD/MT to 598.58 USD/MT. At the same time, the average value of the LNG Bunker Index also decreased by 4.94 USD. MGO LS prices have risen by 26 USD/MT during the same period. The price difference LNG Bunker Index vs. MGO LS in Rotterdam has narrowed significantly and is 33.58 USD now (versus 61.69 USD last week). LNG bunker price indices, TTF, NBP and Henry Hub gas futures, LNG bunker market news and more are available in the new LNG Bunkering section at www.mabux.com.

The average weekly Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – rose by $ 3.80 and surpassed the psychological mark of $ 100: $ 102.25 (versus $ 98.45 last week). At the same time, the average SS Spread in Rotterdam also increased by $ 1.66 and reached $ 109.83 ($ 108.17 last week). In Singapore, the average SS Spread also increased by $ 4.00 to 113.50 USD ($ 109.50 last week). Thus, the ongoing uptrend on the global bunker market is firmly keeping the average SS Spread above the $ 100 mark. More information is available in the Differentials section at www.mabux.com.

Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs showed this week that 380 HSFO fuel remained undervalued in all four selected ports ranging from minus $ 15 in Houston (versus minus $ 7 last week) and minus $ 18 in Fujairah (vs. minus $ 21) to minus $ 34 in Rotterdam (vs. minus $ 42) and minus $ 52 in Singapore (vs. minus $ 53). The most significant changes in underestimation ration were recorded in Houston (up $ 8) and Rotterdam (down $ 8).

VLSFO fuel, according to MABUX DBP Index, was also underepriced in all four selected ports: in Houston the underestimation was minus $ 3 (plus $ 7 last week), in Rotterdam – minus $ 21 (versus minus $ 26), in Fujairah – minus $ 40 (versus minus $ 38), in Singapore – minus $ 47 (versus minus $ 50). In Houston, according to MABUX DBP Index, prices have returned to the underestimation segment again.

As for MGO LS, MABUX DBP Index has registered an undercharge of this grade at all selected ports ranging from minus $ 27 (versus minus $ 23 last week) in Houston to minus $ 45 (versus minus $ 50) in Rotterdam, minus $ 49 (versus minus $ 48) in Singapore and minus $ 53 USD (versus minus $ 54) in Fujairah. There were no significant changes of underestimation margins.

Meeting of the Intersessional Working Group on Greenhouse Gases (ISWG-GHG) failed to achieve agreement on the details of a draft efficiency regulation proposal for existing vessels, with resistance coming from a bloc of developed and developing nations which is pressing for more ambitious GHG emission reduction targets. The draft proposal has its critics who suggest that its adoption could see shipping’s emissions of 1 billion tonnes a year of CO2 rise by as much as 16% by 2030. The proposal was rejected by 27 states, including the United States, Pacific island nations, and European countries, who were pushing for tougher targets that would set shipping on a course that is closer to the 1.5 degree C goal of the Paris Agreement.

Source: MABUX