Bunker fuel outlook – week 47

On a Week 47, the MABUX World Bunker Index continued to drift lower. Index 380 HSFO decreased by 6.05 USD: from 501.67 USD / MT to 495.62 USD / MT. The VLSFO index lost 4.52 USD: from 638.10 USD / MT to 633.58 USD / MT, while the MGO index lost 13.58 USD (from 759.82 USD / MT to 746.24 USD / MT).

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The weekly average Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – remained virtually unchanged during the week, having declined by only $ 0.26 ($ 135.66 versus $ 135.92 last week). At the same time, the average SS Spread in Rotterdam also remained stable: $ 133.33 versus $ 134.00 (minus $ 0.67 versus last week), while the average SS Spread in Singapore decreased by $ 3.84 to $ 157.53 versus $ 161.67 last week. We believe that the suspension of upward trend in the SS Spread index is temporary at the moment. More information is available in the Differentials section of the website www.mabux.com.

Gas prices in Europe remain volatile. On November 24, another increase in prices for LNG as bunker fuel was recorded at the port of Sines (Portugal) to 2050 USD / MT (versus 1931 USD / MT two weeks ago). The current price of LNG is 1328 USD up the price of MGO LS (722 USD / MT as of November 24).

Correlation MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs over the past week showed that 380 HSFO fuel was undervalued in three out of four ports: Rotterdam (minus $ 15), in Singapore (minus $ 19) and Fujairah (minus $ 13). Only in Houston the MABUX MBP / DBP Index recorded an overcharge by $ 12.

VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP / DBP Index, was undervalued in only one port – in Rotterdam by minus $ 5. At all other ports, the overpricing was registered as plus $ 27 in Singapore, plus $ 33 in Fujairah and plus $ 1 in Houston. The trend towards the transition of VLSFO fuel grade to the overcharge segment continues.

As for the MGO LS, the MABUX MBP / DBP Index continued to register an overpricing only in Fujairah by plus $ 31. In all other ports, according to the MABUX MBP / DBP Index, MGO LS was underestimated: in Rotterdam – minus $ 39, in Singapore – minus $ 20 and in Houston – minus 1.

Research made by FuelTrust has revealed that the energy density of different batches of the same bunker fuel can vary by up to 3%, offering buyers the opportunity to reap cost savings when purchasing bunkers. FuelTrust analysed 14 million barrels of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) across 28 batches and found that different batches could provide higher energy. For a fully laden Panamax container ship, for example, this could equate to a 50 metric tonne (mt) saving of fuel on a voyage from Vancouver, Canada to Portsmouth in the UK, or the equivalent of up to 469 nautical miles of additional sailing distance. FuelTrust’s research also indicates that differences in energy intensity will be matched by differences in emissions, and this could also have a financial impact in light of the proposed introduction of carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes.

Source: www.mabux.com