Red Sea container shipping return puts 2026 contract rates under pressure

Red Sea container shipping is gradually returning as several major carriers have begun to reinstate Suez Canal services after a prolonged period of diversion around the Cape of Good Hope.

While this does not yet represent a full return to pre-crisis normality, it signals an important shift in routing patterns that is already feeding into negotiations over 2026 container shipping contract rates.

Xeneta notes that early 2026 long-term contract rates on key east–west trades — particularly Far East to North Europe and Far East to the Mediterranean — have fallen to their lowest levels since before the Red Sea crisis.

In some cases, new contract rates are now below prevailing spot market levels, suggesting that shippers and carriers alike expect further softening in freight markets as capacity gradually normalises.

At the same time, offered capacity through the Red Sea remains well below historical levels, meaning schedules and transit times are not yet fully predictable.

As a result, shippers are balancing the opportunity to secure lower contract rates with the need to maintain supply-chain resilience and reliability.

Overall, Xeneta’s analysis points to a market that is shifting from crisis conditions toward a more competitive environment in 2026, where the partial reopening of the Red Sea is likely to exert downward pressure on both spot and contract rates — provided security conditions continue to stabilise.

Source: Xeneta