MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 35, 2024.
During Week 35, the MABUX global bunker indices resumed a moderate upward movement. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 5.83, moving from USD 523.35/MT last week to USD 529.18/MT. The VLSFO index increased by USD 16.99 (USD 635.76/MT versus USD 618.77/MT last week). The MGO index added USD 6.07 (from USD 787.10/MT last week to USD 793.17/MT), edging closer to the USD 800 mark. At the time of writing, there was no clear trend in the global bunker market.
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The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – continued its steady increase, rising by $11.16 to reach $106.58, up from $95.42 last week, once again surpassing the $100.00 mark (SS Breakeven).
The weekly average also saw a rise of $6.24. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread surged by $26.00 to $101.00 versus $75.00 last week, exceeding the $100.00 mark for the first time since May 1, 2024. The weekly average in the port also rose by $7.33.
In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread recorded the most significant growth, widening by $29.00 from $131.00 last week to $160.00, with the weekly average adding $31.66. This indicates a sustainable upward trend in both the Global SS Spread and SS indices in key ports, which is likely to continue into the following week. For more details, refer to the Differentials section on mabux.com.
The recent rise in European natural gas prices seen in July is now fading due to high stockpiles and easing supply concerns. EU gas reserves have already surpassed the European Commission’s target of 90%, achieving this milestone 10 weeks ahead of the November 01 deadline.
As of August 28, the filling rate of European gas storage facilities continued to rise, reaching 91.83%. By the end of Week 35, the European gas benchmark TTF showed a moderate increase of 0.732 EUR/MWh (38.689 EUR/MWh vs. 37.957 EUR/MWh last week).
The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines, Portugal, dropped by another USD 32 this week compared to the previous week, reaching USD 847/MT on August 27.
Additionally, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel on August 27 decreased to USD 76 in favor of MGO LS, compared to USD 100 the previous week. On that day, MGO LS was quoted at USD 771/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
In Week 35, the MDI index (the correlation ratio of market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) vs. MABUX digital bunker benchmark (MABUX DBP Index)) recorded the following trends across the four largest global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:
- 380 HSFO segment: All four ports were undervalued, with weekly averages up by 2 points in Rotterdam and 1 point in Singapore, but down by 3 points in Houston. The MDI index in Fujairah remained unchanged.
- VLSFO segment: Two ports at once: Singapore and Fujairah moved into the overvalued zone, with weekly averages increasing by 31 points in Singapore and 18 points in Fujairah. Rotterdam and Houston remained undervalued. The weekly averages decreased by 6 and 9 points, respectively.
- MGO LS segment: Fuel was undervalued in all four ports. Weekly averages increased by another 3 points in Rotterdam but decreased by 3 points in Singapore, 14 points in Fujairah, and 5 points in Houston. MDI indices in Rotterdam and Singapore continued to stay steadily above the $100 mark, while the index in Houston approached the 100% correlation mark between the market price and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark.
By the end of the week, the balance of overvalued/undervalued ports indicated a trend towards a gradual reduction in underpricing levels, with some ports transitioning to the overvalued zone We anticipate that this market dynamic—characterized by reduced fuel undervaluation and increased overvaluation—will persist into the next week.
For more details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark, visit the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on mabux.com.
Singapore has been named the world’s leading shipping centre for the 11th consecutive year, with London once again in second place, according to the Xinhua-Baltic International Shipping Centre Development Index (ISCDI). Singapore achieved a score of 96.23 out of 100, while London scored 82.50. Shanghai secured the third position with a score of 81.84. London and Shanghai have consistently held the second and third spots in the Index for the past five years.
Hong Kong (79.07) and Dubai (75.64) completed the top five, with Rotterdam maintaining its sixth-place ranking. This year, Piraeus and Ningbo Zhoushan each climbed one spot to rank seventh and eighth, respectively. Hamburg fell two places to ninth but has remained in the top 10 for the last decade.
Similar to 2023, New York/New Jersey rounded out the top 10. The ISCDI report evaluated a total of 43 ports, assessing various metrics such as cargo throughput, number of cranes, container berth length, port draught etc.
We expect a moderate upward trend to continue in the global bunker market next week.
Source: MABUX
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