Bunker Prices Outlook, Week 16

During Week 16, MABUX World Bunker Index continued slight downward movement following general trends on global crude oil market. 380 HSFO index fell by 1.71 USD: from 420.45 USD/MT to 418.74 USD/MT, VLSFO Index decreased by 5.45 USD: from 512.44 USD/MT to 506.99 USD/MT, while MGO Index lost 3.98 USD (from 584.61 USD/MT to 580.63 USD/MT). The average value of the Global Scrubber Spread (SS) (the difference in price between 380HSFO and VLSFO) changed slightly and stays well below the $ 100 mark: 91.11 USD (versus 91.79 USD last week).

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The global SS spread in the first four months of 2021 showed a steady recovery to the levels of early 2020, the pace of which, however, slowed somewhat in April. As a result, as of April 20, the global SS index rose from 85.64 USD (dd.01.01.2021) to 92.07 USD, remaining below the psychological mark of 100 USD since the end of March.

The SS spread in Singapore increased in the same period from USD 91 to USD 112, and in Rotterdam – from USD 69 to USD 100. Meantime, at the end of March, both ports also recorded a drop of SS spread below 100 USD. Forecasts for a more significant increase of SS spread up to 130-150 USD in the first half of 2021 have not yet come true, which slows down the plans for the installation and use of scrubbers globally. More details are available from new MABUX Differential Section on www.mabux.com.

Correlation of MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs showed this week that 380 HSFO fuel was undercharged in all four selected ports ranging from minus 5 USD (Fujairah) to minus 33 USD (Singapore) unlike last week, where Fujairah recorded an overcharge by plus 5 USD.

The situation with VLSFO bunker prices, according to MABUX DBP Index, practically did not change: underpricing in Rotterdam by minus 8 USD, in Fujairah – by minus 23 USD, in Singapore – by minus 25 USD. In Houston, VLSFO remains overcharged by plus 18 USD (versus plus 32 USD last week).

MGO LS was underpriced in Rotterdam (minus 36 USD) and Singapore (minus 42 USD). In Fujairah, the DBP Index also recorded an undercharge by minus 15 USD versus a week earlier (an overcharge by plus 12 USD). In Houston, this type of fuel was overvalued by 6 USD.

Industry coalition SEA-LNG says the World Bank’s recommendation to avoid investing in LNG bunkering infrastructure risks slowing down the shipping industry’s transition to decarbonization. A report published by the World Bank found that LNG is likely to play a ‘limited role’ in the decarbonization of the shipping sector, noting its specific niche applications on pre-existing routes or in specific vessel types. In a response, SEA-LNG said the report ‘attempts to prescribe solutions’ and ‘predict the timing’ of future technology development.

Source: Mabux

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