Bunker fuel outlook, Week 24
At the end of Week 24, the global bunker indices published by MABUX continued their moderate upward trend. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 1.80, from USD 466.01/MT the previous week to USD 467.81/MT. The VLSFO index increased by USD 1.18, reaching USD 542.08/MT compared to USD 540.90/MT last week.
The MGO index saw a larger gain, adding USD 6.87 to reach USD 729.67/MT, up from USD 722.80/MT. At the time of writing, the market was experiencing minor, multidirectional fluctuations.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—decreased slightly by $0.62, from $74.89 last week to $74.27. However, the average weekly value of the index increased by $2.45. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread rose by $1.00, reaching $49.00 compared to $48.00 the previous week.
The port’s average weekly value also increased, up by $2.67. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference declined by $3.00, from $70.00 to $67.00, while the average weekly value in the port rose by $4.17. Overall, the dynamics of the global and port-specific SS Spread indices remain characterized by minor, multidirectional movements without a clear trend.
VLSFO continues to offer greater cost-effectiveness compared to the 380 HSFO + Scrubber combination, as SS Spread values consistently remain below the $100.00 breakeven mark. No significant changes in SS Spread dynamics are expected in the coming week. For more details, please refer to the Differentials section on mabux.com.
Europe’s heavy reliance on spot LNG is expected to continue through 2030. Although import volumes declined by 17% last year (22 bcm), the EU has remained the world’s largest LNG importer since 2022, surpassing China and Japan.
Efforts are underway to diversify and expand LNG imports from Qatar and various African projects—moves that would boost demand for seaborne transport and support higher freight rates. Additionally, recent agreements between European buyers and Australian producers suggest that LNG shipments from Australia to Europe could begin in the near future.
As of June 10, European regional gas storage facilities were 51.79% full—an increase of 2.59% from the previous week but a decrease of 19.54% compared to the beginning of the year (71.33%). The gradual replenishment of storage continues. By the end of Week 24, the European gas benchmark TTF continued its moderate decline, falling by €1.210/MWh to €34.638/MWh, down from €35.848/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) resumed its decline, dropping by $40 to $786/MT by the end of the week, down from $826/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed to $91 in favor of conventional fuel, compared to $150 the week before.
On June 10, MGO LS was quoted at $695/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on the mabux.com website.
Over the Week 24, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—revealed the following trends across the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments:
- 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overvalued zone, with the average weekly MDI values declining by 8 and 6 points, respectively. In contrast, Fujairah and Houston remained undervalued, with average MDI values increasing by 8 and 18 points, respectively. Notably, Rotterdam and Singapore MDIs are now close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
- VLSFO segment: Rotterdam moved into the undervalued zone, meaning all four ports are now undervalued. The average MDI values rose by 5 points in Rotterdam, 3 points in Singapore, 11 points in Fujairah, and 10 points in Houston. Both Rotterdam and Singapore are approaching 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.
- MGO LS segment: Rotterdam also transitioned to the undervalued zone, joining Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston. The average weekly MDI values increased by 15 points in Rotterdam, 7 in Singapore, 19 in Fujairah, and 12 in Houston. Rotterdam’s MDI remains close to the 100% correlation mark, while Fujairah’s MDI has surpassed $100.00.
The overall market structure has shifted further toward undervaluation. Rotterdam moved into the undervalued zone in both the VLSFO and MGO LS segments, reinforcing the prevailing trend. The dominance of undervalued bunker fuel in the global market is expected to persist into the coming week.
For detailed insights on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark, please refer to the Digital Bunker Prices section at mabux.com.
Rystad Energy warns that while demand for biofuels in the maritime sector is rising, production capacity is failing to keep pace, with shipping facing stiff competition from other industries. In an unconstrained scenario, global biodiesel demand in shipping could exceed 140 million tonnes of fuel oil equivalent by 2028.
However, even under optimal conditions, peak production capacity would reach only around 120 million tonnes. If sustainability criteria are applied—favoring cleaner, second-generation biofuels—capacity drops significantly to just 40 million tonnes.
Factoring in production risks, real output, and cross-sector competition, the volume actually available to shipping could be even lower. A similar situation exists for bio-LNG. Although projected maritime demand is modest at 16 million tonnes of fuel oil equivalent by 2028, supply constraints remain critical.
Over 84% of global biomethane is currently consumed by the power sector, with another 10% going to road transport. This leaves just 6% for all other sectors, including shipping, making effective access far more limited than headline supply figures imply. Infrastructure challenges further compound the issue.
We expect the global bunker market to maintain a moderate upward trend, with no significant sharp fluctuations anticipated.
Source: MABUX
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