Bunker fuel outlook, Week 17

By the end of the 17th week, the global bunker indices published by MABUX continued a moderate upward correction. The 380 HSFO index increased by 6.68 USD, rising from 463.50 USD/MT the previous week to 470.18 USD/MT, gradually approaching the 500 USD mark.

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The VLSFO index edged up by 3.35 USD, from 538.25 USD/MT to 541.60 USD/MT. Meanwhile, the MGO index rose by 9.07 USD, climbing from 721.86 USD/MT to 730.93 USD/MT. At the time of writing, the market remained in a phase of moderate upward correction.

MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – continued its moderate decline: minus $3.33 (from $74.75 last week to $71.42), closely approaching the $70.00 mark. The weekly average of the index also decreased by $3.51. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread rose by $5.00 ($35.00 against $30.00 last week), still remaining below the $40.00 mark.

At the same time, the weekly average in the port, on the contrary, decreased by $10.33. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread decreased by $1.00, from $58.00 last week to $57.00, and the weekly average in the port lost $6.50.

At the moment, the global and port SS Spread indices are quoted well below the $100.00 mark (SS Breakeven), which maintains the higher profitability of using VLSFO compared to the 380HSFO + Scrubber combination. We do not expect significant changes in the dynamics of the SS Spread next week. More information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.

According to the latest IEA Gas Report, LNG imports into Europe are projected to increase by 25% in 2025, approaching record levels due to heightened storage needs and reduced Russian pipeline gas supplies. In contrast, LNG imports into Asia are expected to decline, primarily driven by a downturn in demand from China.

As of April 22, European regional gas storage facilities were 37.02% full—down 6.67% from the previous week and 34.31% lower than at the start of the year, when storage levels stood at 71.33%. After two consecutive weeks of growth, gas reserves in EU storage facilities have resumed their decline.

By the end of the 17th week, the European gas benchmark TTF remained largely unchanged, slipping by just 0.163 euro/MWh to 34.244 euro/MWh from 34.407 euro/MWh the previous week.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) rose sharply by USD 127 at the end of the week, reaching USD 790/MT, up from USD 663/MT the previous week. On April 21, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel widened to USD 108 in favor of conventional fuel, compared to just USD 2 the week before.

On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at USD 682/MT in Sines. For more details, visit the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.

At the end of the 17th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—showed the following trends across the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments:

• 380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overvalued zone, with the average weekly MDI declining by 8 and 1 points, respectively. The other two ports—Fujairah and Houston—were in the undervalued zone, with average undervaluation levels rising by 6 and 11 points, respectively. Notably, Rotterdam’s MDI stayed close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: All four key ports remained undervalued. The average weekly MDI increased by 12 points in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah, and by 6 points in Houston, indicating a slight narrowing of the undervaluation gap.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam was the only port in the overvalued zone, with its average weekly MDI increasing by 21 points. The other three ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—remained undervalued. MDI rose by 9 points in Singapore and 26 points in Fujairah, while Houston’s index remained unchanged.

Overall, the week saw no significant shifts in the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports. This structure is expected to remain stable into next week.

For more details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark, visit the Digital Bunker Prices section on mabux.com.

The agreement reached at MEPC 83 introduces progressively stricter greenhouse gas (GHG) emission requirements for ships, beginning in 2028. An initial baseline reduction target of 4% will be followed by a “direct compliance” target of 17%.

These limits will increase annually, aiming for a 30% baseline and a 43% direct compliance target by 2035. Ships that fail to meet these targets will face GHG emissions charges under a two-tier pricing system: $100 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent for ships that meet only the baseline target, and $380 per tonne for those that meet neither. Surplus compliance may be pooled or carried forward.

If adopted by IMO member states in October, the regulation will also establish an IMO Net-Zero Fund to redistribute revenue from emissions charges, support the adoption of zero-emission fuels (ZNZ), and fund cleaner fuel transitions in developing countries.

The global bunker market is exhibiting signs of a moderate upward correction. We anticipate that the upward trend will continue to dominate the movement of global bunker indices next week.

Source: MABUX

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