Bunker fuel outlook, Week 14
At the end of the 14th week, the global bunker indices (MABUX) maintained a moderate upward trend. The 380 HSFO index increased by 5.94 USD, rising from 503.31 USD/MT last week to 508.53 USD/MT, staying above the 500 USD mark.
The VLSFO index edged up by 3.85 USD, remaining at 587.68 USD/MT, still below the 600 USD threshold. Meanwhile, the MGO index climbed by 5.94 USD, from 768.81 USD/MT last week to 774.75 USD/MT. However, at the time of writing, there were indications that prices were beginning to trend downward.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its moderate decline, dropping by $1.37 from $80.52 last week to $79.15, slipping below the $80.00 mark. The weekly average of the index also saw a slight decrease of $0.15.
In Rotterdam, the SS Spread showed growth for the first time in four weeks, rising by $7.00 from $39.00 to $46.00, surpassing the $40.00 threshold. However, the weekly average in the port remained unchanged at $46.00.
Meanwhile, in Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference increased by $15.00, climbing from $51.00 last week to $66.00, with the weekly average in the port rising by $11.84. Overall, SS Spread dynamics indicate signs of a renewed upward trend.
However, the indices remain well below the $100.00 breakeven mark, keeping conventional VLSFO more profitable than the 380 HSFO + Scrubber combination. For more details, refer to the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.
Europe is capitalizing on weak Asian demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to increase imports to their highest level for this time of year. Lower Asian demand and spot prices are prompting the resale of cargoes to Europe, which, as the heating season ends, must begin replenishing LNG stockpiles depleted by a winter colder than the previous three.
Meanwhile, Europe has a short-term window to secure large LNG volumes, as China’s LNG imports are projected to decline this year—the first annual drop since 2022.
As of April 1, European regional storage facilities were 33.59% full, down 0.32% from the previous week and 37.74% lower than at the start of the year (71.33%).
With rising average temperatures, gas extraction had virtually ceased. Meanwhile, the European gas benchmark, TTF, continued its moderate growth in Week 14, increasing by €0.895/MWh to €42.450/MWh from €41.555/MWh last week.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) experienced a sharp decline at the end of the week, dropping to 787 USD/MT from 874 USD/MT the previous week.
Simultaneously, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel narrowed by Apr.02, with MGO LS quoted at 736 USD/MT, resulting in a price difference of 51 USD in favor of MGO LS, compared to 147 USD the week prior. More detailed information can be found in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
At the end of Week 14, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which measures the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—continued its gradual shift towards fuel undervaluation in the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments.
380 HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore moved into the undervalued zone, meaning all four major ports were now undervalued. The weekly average MDI values increased as follows:
- Rotterdam: +8 points
- Singapore: +19 points
- Fujairah: +9 points
- Houston: +4 points
- MDI values in Rotterdam and Singapore were close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
VLSFO segment: all four selected ports remained undervalued. The weekly average MDI values changed as follows:
- Rotterdam: +10 points
- Singapore: +8 points
- Houston: +12 points
- Fujairah: Unchanged
MGO LS segment: Rotterdam re-entered the overvalued zone, becoming the only overvalued port, with its weekly average MDI rising by 10 points. The other three ports remained undervalued, with the following increases:
- Singapore: +6 points
- Fujairah: +11 points
- Houston: +4 points
- Rotterdam remained near the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
The overall trend continues to shift toward undervaluation, with two additional ports in the 380 HSFO segment now classified as undervalued. We anticipate that this trend will dominate the global bunker market in the coming week.
For more details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark, visit the Digital Bunker Prices section on mabux.com.
The European Commission has released its first report on the inclusion of maritime transport in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). The report provides an initial assessment of the EU ETS’s impact since its entry into force in the shipping sector on January 1, 2024, currently covering approximately 12,000 large vessels.
The document examines the potential risks of evasion and circumvention of the system’s requirements but finds no evidence that its introduction has caused major market disruptions. Additionally, the Commission has published a separate analysis on the possible inclusion of small vessels between 400 and 5,000 GRT under the EU Regulation on Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV).
The analysis reveals that more than 5,300 small vessels, responsible for around 11 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, remain outside the legislation’s scope. Including these vessels in the EU ETS could increase regulated emissions by approximately 9% and expand the number of covered vessels by about 42%.
We anticipate the global bunker market remains relatively balanced, minimizing the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations. Next week, a moderate decline in indices is possible, while multidirectional price movements are expected to prevail.
Source: MABUX
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