Bunker fuel market weekly outlook – Week 34

On a Week 34, the MABUX World Bunker Index turned into a moderate upward evolution. The 380 HSFO index rose by 5.76 USD: from 440.36 USD/MT to 446.12 USD/MT, the VLSFO index increased by 6.07 USD: from 534.14 USD/MT to 540.21 USD / MT, while the MGO index added 3.63 USD (from 633.54 USD / MT up to 637.17 USD / MT).

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The MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index, calculated as the average price of LNG as a marine fuel in the ARA region, fell sharply in the period of August 19-26 from 978.64 USD/MT to 934.89 USD MT (minus 43.75 USD). At the same time, the average value of the LNG Bunker Index increased by 41.82 USD compared to the week before.

The average price for MGO LS in Rotterdam during the same period decreased by 15.16 USD/MT (compared to the week before), and the average price difference between bunker LNG and MGO LS in Rotterdam increased by 56.99 USD and exceeded 400 USD: 427.75 USD (versus 370.76 USD the previous week). LNG bunker price indices are available in the LNG Bunkering section at www.mabux.com.

The average weekly Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – continued to decline to $ 92.59 (versus $ 95.79 last week). The average SS Spread in Rotterdam has not changed and is still at $ 100 mark, but since August 23, its values have slightly exceeded $ 100. In Singapore, the average SS Spread has also decreased by $ 11.50 and is close to $ 100 now. ($ 112.17 last week). SS Spread below $ 100 reduces the cost-effectiveness of scrubbers’ installation as a method to cut emission. More information is available in the Differentials section of www.mabux.com.

Correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Benchmark) in the four global largest hubs over the past week showed that 380 HSFO fuel returned into the overpricing segment in two of the four ports: in Singapore, the overcharge was registered as plus $ 15 (versus minus $ 38 a week ago) and in Fujairah – plus $ 6 (versus plus $ 11). In Rotterdam, the MABUX MB /DBP Index had a 100-percent correlation. Houston is the only port, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, where 380 HSFO fuel was undervalued by minus $ 10 (versus minus $ 15).

VLSFO fuel, according to the MABUX DBP Index, was underestimated in all selected ports, except of Singapore, where an overpricing of this fuel grade was registered as plus $ 11 (versus minus $ 37 last week). In other ports, the average underpricing ratio was: in Houston – minus $ 3 (minus $ 11), in Rotterdam – minus $ 2 (minus $ 28), in Fujairah – minus $ 29 (versus minus $ 35). The most significant change of the MABUX MBP/DBP Index was registered in Singapore: minus $ 48.

As for MGO LS, on Week 34 the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an undercharge of this fuel grade at all selected ports ranging from minus $ 16 (versus minus $ 24 last week) in Houston to minus $ 25 (minus $ 61) in Rotterdam, minus $ 28 (vs. minus $ 78) in Singapore and minus $ 51 (minus $ 57) in Fujairah.

Overall, significant reduction of underestimation margin of all fuel grades has been the result of a steady upward trend of bunker prices on a global market over the past four days.

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Source: www.mabux.com